#210: How Big Money's Feeling About 2024
#210: How Big Money's Feeling About 2024
Happy new year! 🥳
2023 was a fantastic year for US and EM equities (excluding China), not to mention the recovery in major cryptocurrencies
The year ahead feels to be a bit more unpredictable on the macro-end (i.e. FX, rates) — here are, as of writing, the major financial institutions’ official view on 2024
Recession or not?
Amundi, JPMorgan Asset Management, Vanguard: "mild" recession to come
BNY Mellon Wealth Management: "healthy and welcome slowdown"
Barclays: "soft-ish landing"
Bank of America: “soft landing”
Raymond James: Base case is “mild recession”
Deutsche Bank: “hard US landing”
👉 76% of economists said they believe the chances of a recession in the next 12 months is 50% or less, per a December survey from the National Association for Business Economics
How about rates?
Bank of America: 90% likelihood of Fed rate cut by March
Goldman Sachs: "We now expect the FOMC to cut earlier and faster. […] We now forecast three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in March, May, and June”
JPMorgan: "We now look for a first cut in June (previously July)"
Macquarie: “Overall cuts of 225 bps in 2024 driven by a continued moderation in core inflation and an undesirable rise in unemployment"
👉 As of writing, the market consensus is at a total of 150 bps cut by year-end. Projections on total number of cuts and timing are widely varied between different institutions. Each month’s data print will become more and more important as the year goes by.
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