#211: Iowa Showdown on Monday

Jan 13, 2024

The Iowa caucuses, which start the Republican Party primaries, are to be held on Monday (1/15)
Trump has a clear and wide lead, with about 50% support from Republicans
Desantis and Haley follow, with about 10% support each. Then, how is the election likely to play out?

Republican Party Primaries

The Republican primaries determine who will run for the Republican party in the 2024 presidential election in November. Of course, an Iowa victory does not guarantee a nomination, but acts as a strong indicator of who Republican supporters want to be their nominee and next president.

Iowa is the start of many caucuses and primaries, followed by the New Hampshire caucus on the 23rd. Then, let’s go through a rundown of the contenders.

Dominant Frontrunner

Donald Trump, former president and businessman, is polling the early 50% mark in most polls
Nikki Haley, former UN ambassador and South Carolina governor, is at 12%
Ron Desantis, current governor of Florida, is polling at 11%.

👉 Some takeaways are that Nikki Haley was not a prominent candidate early on in the Republican race but is now the strongest challenger to Trump. Ron Desantis, who was once considered to be the new hope for the party, has lost his momentum and is now at 11%.

Bleak Prospects

Polls last year showed that more than half of voters don’t want to see another Biden-Trump rematch, but it is practically confirmed that a rematch is imminent. We’ll wait until the summer to see if this will be the case, but I’m not hopeful.

💡 My personal opinion is that Nikki Haley could be the one to bring moderates in - she is relatively moderate, has diplomatic experience (which shows in debates), and the Democratic Party doesn’t have a good enough alternative to Biden. But alas, polls show Trump is most likely going to be the nominee. And regardless of public sentiment, a Biden-Trump rematch is most likely where we are headed.