#213: Pissing Xi Off
Taiwan elected its new president, Lai Ching-te two weeks ago
This development has significant implications for the world, as Lai is thoroughly anti-China/pro-America
China was not happy about these results. What can we expect now?
Election Results
Taiwan held its presidential election on January 13th, ending with Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party being elected. Why is this important? Lai based his campaign on anti-China sentiments, arguing for independence from China.
The election itself was almost like a referendum for the Taiwanese; that is, how they want to move forward concerning China. Three major parties ran in this election.
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) — for Taiwan’s independence, pro-U.S. and anti-China
Kuomintang — against Taiwan’s independence, for deepening relations with China
Taiwan People’s Party — for maintaining the status quo
🇹🇼 Therefore, the DPP’s victory shows the general public’s sentiment toward geopolitics, and we can expect Taiwan’s diplomacy to be more favorable to the U.S.
China’s Response
Taiwan is in a sort of limbo status — functioning as a sovereign state, but also not being outright recognized as one in international politics. China strongly asserts that Taiwan is part of its territory and regards the DPP as “separatists”. Lai becoming the president of Taiwan places a significant strain on these relations.
🇨🇳 China hasn’t responded directly to the election results, but made statements against other countries who congratulated Taiwan. The gist is that they are still ambitious about reunification and displeased that Taiwan is being recognized as an independent country.
Balancing Game
The U.S. delegation visited Taiwan shortly after the election and expressed congratulations. Now, the most important issue is: Will China attack Taiwan?
💡 China’s military isn’t in the best place right now. With reports of weak weapons due to corruption, possible lack of oversight, etc, I doubt China is confident in its military prowess. They’re in the middle of, or at least just finishing a full internal cleanup — so it’s highly unlikely they’ll make any moves as of now.
My guess is they’ll wait to see how the wars in Ukraine and Israel pan out — supporting both of these wars is definitely putting a strain on the U.S. economically and diplomatically, and China would want to ensure they are in the most advantageous position possible.
They could also wait for the U.S. presidential election results and navigate their next move based on if Biden secures a second term or if Trump wins and changes diplomatic sentiments.
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