#220: Republican Rebellion
With Nikki Haley out of the race, Trump and Biden have been solidified as the candidates for November’s presidential election
However, Trump could be in big trouble. Let’s take a look into why!
Republican Rebellion
Trump is not a traditional politician — he didn’t become president in the 2016 election by playing by the GOP’s rules, but rather by changing the whole party so that it was essentially “his” party. The GOP today is vastly different from the GOP a decade ago.
Why bring this up? Because Trump fundamentally needs the whole party supporting him and his message to exude the idea that he is their leader. However, some signs suggest Trump is losing his grip on the GOP.
In the Florida Republican Primary held March 19th, Nikki Haley won 150,000 votes (Trump about 900,000) even though she has dropped out of the race
This shows that these Republicans took the time and showed up to vote for a moot candidate — basically showing that they don’t want Trump as their candidate
Mike Pence, Trump’s former VP, said to Fox News that he does not endorse Trump
With so many unwilling to vote for him in his own party, and the former second-in-command unwilling to endorse him — signs show that Trump has considerably less support than he did in 2016 and 2020.
Who will win?
At this point in the election, who has more overall support is not as important anymore. This election will not be determined by who is more popular per se, but who wins key states. These elections are won by margins, not the majority.
What does that mean? It means that states like New York (which are practically guaranteed to vote Biden) or Texas (which will vote Trump) need no longer be the focus. States like Pennsylvania and Georgia are the ones that can completely change who wins.
Remember, in the 2020 election, Biden won Arizona by a mere 10,000 votes. So, who wins key states by even small margins is insanely important.
Then let’s take it back to Haley and Pence. Signs that he is losing a grip on his party mean Trump could lose precious votes in key states. This could ultimately cost him the election. Of course, recent polls do show that he is more popular than Biden.
Biden has the risk of old-age concerns and the Israel-Hamas War has certainly made him less popular — these points are completely warranted and potentially damning. So, how well he can persuade the public that he is competent in the months to come will be crucial.
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