#222: What if No One Wins?
RFK Jr. is an independent presidential candidate with around 10% support in polling
Now, there is no way in hell that he is going to be the next president. But can he deal enough damage to either Tump or Biden and get the other one to the finish line?
The Third Party Candidate
Robert F. Kennedy Jr, former Democrat and current independent candidate, is most well known for being JFK’s nephew and is currently the most popular third-party candidate in the past couple of decades.
With public weariness of both Trump and Biden, some voters have looked to this candidate as an “at least he seems more sane” option. And yes, they may not be wrong.
However, it is extremely unlikely that he will actually become the president. But what damage can he potentially do to Trump and Biden, and can that change the course of the election?
Reaching 270
This has never really happened, but if no candidate gets the majority of electoral votes in the presidential election (270 votes), then the House of Representatives votes on who the next president will be. The closest we came to that in recent memory was in 2000 when George W. Bush got 271 votes.
Therefore, if RFK Jr. is able to take away enough electoral votes from either Trump or Biden, a scenario may occur where no candidate reaches 270. The key point here is that, because the House of Representatives is currently a Republican majority, in that event Trump would most likely become president.
Who does he hurt more?
Of course, this whole scenario is not likely. But even one of RFK Jr.’s own consultants is trying to make him appealing to Trump supporters with this narrative (although said consultant was fired after this statement).
He himself has said that his “intention is to hurt both of them.” And both Democrats and Republicans claim he is hurting their own candidates.
However, he may be hurting Biden more. Some polls show Biden leading Trump in a two-way match, but then losing when RFK is added to the mix. So it is certainly concerning for the Democratic Party, but only time will tell the extent of his actual influence on the election.
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