#251: Good buys into Wednesday's Fed meeting through March

Massive thank you & welcome to 51 new wise apes joining the community since our last post!

In this email:

• What’s at stake on Wednesday’s Fed meeting?

• Themes leading up to the meeting

• IMO: Good buys till March Fed meeting

What’s at stake on Wednesday’s Fed meeting?

Above shows how “flat” (aka not much change in interest rates priced in) the rates curve is out to even the April Fed meeting, quite a different tone from last year when we had aggressive cuts priced in first half of 2026.

This meeting isn’t about a rate cut. It’s about expectations control.

Key things the market is actually listening for:

• Any shift in language around “confidence” in inflation progress

• Whether Powell pushes back on early cut pricing

• How united the committee sounds about timing

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Themes leading up to the meeting

1. Soft-landing confidence is high
Growth has held up. Labor data is cooling but not breaking. Inflation is drifting lower, so the whole “we have to watch out for medium to long term risk in inflation due to tariffs” argument is over (for now).

2. March is the real decision point
This meeting sets the path to March. Powell knows it. The market knows it. Everything said Wednesday is really about optionality two months from now, which means this meeting’s press conference matters less for rates, more for narrative discipline.

IMO: Good buys till March Fed meeting

This feels like a range-bound, selective risk-on window, not a chase-everything market.

With rates expectations flat and March as the true inflection point, I prefer assets that:

• Don’t require cuts to work

• Benefit from policy uncertainty rather than clarity

• Hold value if narratives wobble

💡 A few that fit that box: