🏠 falling sentiment

the september national association of home builders (nahb) / wells fargo housing market index was released at 10am today

• now, that’s a mouthful – essentially, the index represents a monthly survey of nahb members designed to gauge the single-family housing market

• the hmi can range between 0 and 100

the result was unsurprisingly bad, but added negative pressure nonetheless

• in september, the index dropped another three points to 46, making it the ninth consecutive decline

  • a reading below 50 indicates that more single-family homebuilders view conditions as poor rather than good

• other than the spring '20 craziness (aka when the market had just realized the pandemic is very much a real thing), this september's hmi figure is the lowest it's been since may '14

context: the fed

• september likely won't be the last declining month in a while

• the fed is expected to raise another hefty .75% in rates during this week's fomc meeting

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate is above 6% now, and that's for the first time since nov '08

tickers to watch

• i can’t say that weak home building data and rising mortgage rates will singlehandedly cause real estate (and especially homebuilder) tickers to go down, but i’d keep my eyes on these tickers and stay cautious in expecting a quick rebound in price

  • KBH 0.00 (kb home)

  • OPEN 0.00 (opendoor technologies)

  • Z 0.00 (zillow)

these are obviously just a few – there are way more relevant tickers, but these are the ones i’ve had experience trading / monitoring, and imo would stay cautious touching

💡 something im thinking about

that's all, folks 🐒

buy me a coffee :)

as always, i’m no financial advisor! (i’m no substitute for professional financial services)