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🦧 minutes to read
what really are minutes?
the federal open market committee (fomc) is held ~8 times per year. the meeting is normally held for two days, and on the second day at 2pm (est), an official statement is usually released (like this one from the most recent nov 1-2 meeting)
in a nutshell, the statement tells us right away the fed’s plan on rates
and then, 2~3 weeks later, minutes on the committee's meeting are released, offering detailed insights, which are carefully analyzed by currency traders for forward looking clues
today, we’ll take a look at the most recent meeting’s minutes and see if there’s anything interesting
+.50% hike likely next month
"most respondents […] viewed a 50 basis point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate at the december meeting as the most likely outcome"
nominal treasury yields, investment grade bond yields, and mortgage interest rates all moved up in the period, reflecting an "upward revision in the expected path of the policy rate"
review of the current economy
us real gdp had increased at a moderate pace in q3, after having declined in h1
inflation, as the fed measures it with the personal consumption expenditures (pce) index, "remained elevated"
total pce was +6.2% you, while core pce (excluding energy and food prices) was +5.1% yoy
in sept., total nonfarm payroll gained slightly, and the unemployment rate declined .2% to 3.5%
data points to weaker momentum and "further deterioration" in the chinese property market
the rate hike continues…
💡 something im thinking about
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