🦧 ottawa starts ahead

macklem who

• on wednesday, bank of canada (canada's central bank) raised rates for the 8th time, raising the target rate another .25% to 4.50%

• the canadian central bank raised a total of 4.25% in a year, as the country's inflation peaked at 8.1%

  • the speed and magnitude at which bank of canada has been raising rates has been fairly on par with the us’ fed

• this is canada's highest level in 15 years

turning the corner on inflation

bank of canada’s chair tim macklem is showing stronger than confidence than the fed’s chair jerome powell – macklem stated that "recent development have reinforced our confidence that inflation is coming down"

• notwithstanding the potential differences in how inflation indices are calculated for canada and the states, the chart above shows that inflation may have cooled faster in canada

for the us and the fed, this could mean that:

• the fed may raise rates for the last time this coming february meeting (market's are pricing a .25% hike as of writing)

• ecb (european central bank), on the other hand, seems to be nowhere close to done raising rates – markets are currently pricing two .50% hikes ahead

  • imo: all else being equal (which is saying a lot), the euro’s 3%+ rally against the us dollar may be extended in the near term

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💡 something im thinking about

the winklevoss twins' crypto startup gemini is laying off 10% of its staff, which would make it its third round of cuts in the past eight months (click image)

as always, i’m no financial advisor! (i’m no substitute for professional financial services)