🦧 buy me up when september ends
📖 history tells us…
it’s been a great month so far.
s&p 500’s up nearly 3% in just the first six trading sessions of september
after 7+ consecutive down (or flat) sessions, us equities regained reason to be optimistic
aka: the beige book release on wednesday
central bankers indicated that they feel outlook to be "generally weak" over the next six to 12 months
that’s no good news on the surface, but this could provide reason for the markets to believe that the fed may not go as extreme as previously anticipated, in terms of monetary tightening and intentionally stifling inflation
fed aside, let’s talk history – the september effect!
like in the photo at the top of this email, some researchers (this one for example) argue that september is historically the worst month
there is zero cause or direct explanation, but this is rather a statistical quirk (imo)
the pattern persists worldwide, not just the us stock market
some possible theories are:
investors make adjustments to their portfolios at the end of summer
most mutual funds “cash in their holdings” to harvest tax losses
families sell en masse to afford tuition or back-to-school items
i had to call a few sick days, but im back!
have a great weekend y’all :)